Why Warnock is Favored

     This year's Dec 6 runoff between Walker and Warnock will have a major influence on the future of the senate. Even though the Democrats have won the senate, and this is only for a bonus seat, it is still vitally important for three reasons. First, with a 51st vote, Senator Manchin of West Virginia no longer holds the power in the chamber. He is the most conservative of the Democrats currently. Secondly, it will help them in the 2024 election, one where they are already at great risk of losing the senate. And finally, it will give them the power to have a majority in all of the committees.      2 years ago, Raphael Warnock won the Georgia runoff for control of the senate, and this year he is looking to repeat that feat. So what are his chances? Well, TMax thinks they are pretty high, for a number of reasons. The first reason is that he won the first election. Sure it was by less then a percentage point, but the fact remains that he won. This is really pretty significant, because the ball is now in Walker’s court so to speak. Walker has to improve somehow, because if all stays the same, Warnock will win. Now some readers may be thinking, didn’t Warnock do exactly that in 2020? Well yes, the general ballot in his race in 2020 was R+1, but he went on to win his runoff by 2.1 points. But keep in mind that the circumstances for that election were drastically unusual. At that time, there was a sitting president who had lost his election and was claiming massive fraud. However, he was unable to produce evidence for these claims, and this definitely turned several independent voters against the republican candidate. This election lacks that kind of event, and so the question stands, what could be the thing that makes Herschal Walker comeback? His best chance is to improve on turnout, which is usually slightly lower in runoff races. So, if 92% of Walker’s voters turnout, and only 88% of Warnock’s he could win. However, if turnout stays consistent or improves for Warnock, Walker has little chance.     The second reason that Warnock is favored in TMax’s ratings is that the Georgia Governor's race is not on the ballot. The republican candidate this year was Brian Kemp, who is quite popular. It is definitely possible that Kemp helped Warnock’s performance in the first election. Perhaps it wasn’t incredibly significant, but if some number of Walker’s voters only came to the polls to vote for kemp, and voted for Walker while they were there, then those voters may not turn out for Walker again. This is a problem for Walker, because he needs to be gaining ground, and any reason that he might lose ground, looks troubling for him.     Lastly, Walker may have lost one of his biggest advantages in this race. Walker is by no means a traditional politician. In Fact Many polls that asked voters which candidate was a better politician, found that Warnock led strongly, in one poll, by nearly 20%. However these same polls found Warnock and Walker to be essentially tied when they asked the voters who they would vote for. The reason for this is that many independent voters preferred Warnock as a candidate, but wanted the republicans in control of the senate, as a way to put a check on the power held by the democrats. At the time of the first election, it seemed very likely that the Georgia senate race could be the determining factor in this cycle. But now that has changed. This race cannot determine control of the senate. Regardless of the outcome, Democrats will hold the senate, it's merely a question of by how much. And for Walker this is bad news, because it means he may lose some of his share of the independent block. Consider a voter who considers Walker to be a liar and a bad candidate, but has seen the Democrats in charge for two years and wants to see a republican led senate. Well this voter may likely have cast their ballot for Walker in the first round. But now, no matter how they vote, the senate is controlled by Dems, and their opinion of Walker remains negative. How Likely is this voter to turnout again for Walker? It seems quite possible that this time around, they will just stay home, or even vote for Warnock. This is yet another potential catastrophe for Walker, because as previously stated, he needs to gain ground, but this piece of evidence gives reason to believe that he may lose quite a bit instead.      All of these reasons combined, have made the TMax forecast believe that Warnock is the favored candidate. Is he guaranteed to win? Absolutely not, but if you’re deciding where to place your bet, it seems like Warnock is the better choice right now.